Oscar Handicap 2019: Supporting Actor and Actress

In this article, we will examine voting patterns for the two Supporting Acting categories.

Best Supporting Actor

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 34 of the past 40 times (85%). Advantage: Ali, Elliott, Grant, Rockwell

2) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 34 of 40 (85%). Advantage: Driver, Elliott

3) Xenophobia is alive and well in this category, as actors playing American characters have won 30 of 40 (75%). Advantage: Ali, Driver, Elliott

4) Actors from movies with a nominated screenplay have won 29 of 40 (72.5%). Advantage: All nominees in this category

5) Winners in this category have represent films without a Best Actor nominee 28 of 40 (70%). Advantage: Driver, Grant

6) The Winner of the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor has won here 26 of 40 (65%). Advantage: Ali

7) SAG winners for Best Supporting Actor went on to win the Oscar 15 times of the 24 years the former awards have been handed out (62.5%). Advantage: Ali

8) The winner of the Critics Choice Award for Best Supporting Actor also wins here 13 of the 23 times the Broadcast Film Critics Association has handed out awards (56.5%). Advantage: Ali

9) If you were also nominated for a BAFTA for the same category, you’ve won here 22 of 40 (55%). Advantage: Ali, Driver, Grant, Rockwell

10) If you are a first time Oscar nominee in any category, you’ve won Best Supporting Actor 21 of 40 (52.5%). Advantage: Driver, Elliott, Grant

By The Numbers
Ali has had the late surge in the awards season, but we’re liking the odds for Sam Elliott, who should have been nominated for Best Actor last year for The Hero.

Mahershala Ali (Green Book): +1, -2, +3, +4, _5, +6, +7, +8, +9, -10 (206 of 367, 56.13%)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman): -1, +2, +3, +4, +5, -6, -7, -8, +9, +10 (203 of 367, 55.31%)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born): +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, -6, -7, -8, =9, +10 *237 of 367, 64.58%
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?): +1, -2, -3, +4, +5, -6, -7, -8, +9, +10 (183 of 367, 49.86%)
Sam Rockwell (Vice): +1. -2, -3, +4, -5, -6, -7, -8, +9, -10 (165 of 367, 44.94%)

Best Supporting Actress

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the nominee from the lowest grossing film at the time of the nominations, you’ve won 38 of 40 (95%). Advantage: Adams, King, Stone, Weisz

2) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 35 of 40 (87.5%). Advantage: Adams, de Tavira, King, Weisz

3) If your film does not have a co-star nominated in the Best Actress race, you’ve won here 30 of 40 (75%). Advantage: Adams, King

4) Actresses who played fictional characters have won here 29 of 40 (72.5%). Advantage: de Tavira, King

5) Playing a character coming from a nominated screenplay has led to a win here 29 of 40 (72.5%). Advantage: All nominees in this category

6) First-time Oscar nominees have won in this category 28 of 39 (71.8%). Advantage: Bilge, Janney, Manville, Metcalf

7) SAG winners for Best Supporting Actress went on to win the Oscar 17 times of the 24 years the former awards have been handed out (69.6%). Advantage: None of the nominees (Emily Blunt won for A Quiet Place.)

8) Xenophobia is alive and well in this category, as actors playing American characters have won 28 of 40 (70%). Advantage: Adams, King

9) Acting in a film nominated for Best Picture has helped you win here 25 of 40 (62.5%). Advantage: Adams, de Tavira, Stone, Weisz

10) The winner of the Critics Choice Award for Best Supporting Actress has gone on to win here 15 of the 23 years the Broadcast Film Critics Association has been handing out awards (65.2%). Advantage: King

11) The winner of the Golden Globe in this category has gone on to win the Oscar 22 of 40 (55%). Advantage: King

12) A BAFTA nominee for Best Supporting Actress has won here 21 of 40 (52.5%). Advantage: Adams, Stone, Weisz

By The Numbers 
It’s a damn near tie between Amy Adams and Regina King. Should Regina King win, and there’s no reason she shouldn’t, she’ll be the fourth African-American actress to win this category in the past ten years.

Amy Adams (Vice): +1, +2, +3, -4, +5, -6, -7, +8, +9, -10, -11, +12 (261 of 447, 58.39%)
Marina de Tavira (Roma): -1, +2, -3, +4, +5, +6, -7. -8, +9, -10, -11, -12 (223 of 447, 49.89%)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk): +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6, -7, +8, -9, +10, +11, -12 (258 of 447, 57.72%)
Emma Stone (The Favourite): +1, -2, -3, -4, +5, -6, -7, -8, +9, -10, -11, +12 (157 of 447, 35.12%)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite): +1, +2, -3, -4, +5, -6, -7, -8, +9, -10, -11, +12 (187 of 447, 41.83%)

Thank you for taking the time to check us out.

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Animated Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Cinematography
Best Production Design
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Editing
Best Costume Design
Best Score
Best Sound Effects and Best Sound Mixing
Best Documentary Feature

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