Oscar Handicap 2019: Leading Actor and Actress

Here, we will examine the results of voting patterns for Best Actor and Best Actress.

Best Actor

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not your film’s only chance of winning an Oscar, you’ve won 38 of 409 times (95%). Advantage: Bale, Cooper, Malek, Mortensen

2) As long as you’re not the nominee in the lowest grossing film in this category at the time of the nomination announcements, you’ve won 37 of 40 (92.5%). Advantage: Bale, Cooper, Malek, Mortensen

3) If your performance was in a movie also nominated for Best Picture, you’ve won 32 of 40 (80%). Advantage: Bale, Cooper, Malek, Mortensen

4) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 32 of 40 (80%). Advantage: Bale, Cooper, Dafoe, Mortensen

5) The SAG Award winner in this category has gone on to win the Oscar in the same category 19 of the 24 times the former award has been awarded (79.2%). Advantage: Malek

6) A nominee for Best Actor at the BAFTA’s has won in this category 30 of 40 (75%). Advantage: Bale, Cooper, Malek, Mortensen

7) Those who also received a Golden Globe for Best Actor the same year have won the Best Actor Oscar 30 of 40 (74.4%). Advantage: Bale, Malek

8) Playing an American? You win 25 of 40 (62.5%). Advantage: Bale, Cooper, Mortensen

9) Those previously nominated for an Oscar have won the Best Actor Oscar 24 of 40 (60%). Advantage: Bale, Cooper, Dafoe, Mortensen

10) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 23 of 40 (57.5%). Advantage: Cooper

11) Actors working from a screenplay adapted from a previously published work have won 21 of 40 (52.5%). Advantage: Cooper

By the Numbers…

Malek has the momentum, but Bale is the front-runner based on our statistics. But then, that’s the whole point of this exercise, right? Can you predict the Oscars based on other factors? For Best Actor, our statistics have been correct 10 times of the 13 years we’ve done this so far, or 76.9% of the time. Not perfect, but more often right than wrong.

Christian Bale (Vice): +1, +2, +3, +4, -5, +6, +7, +8, +9, -10, -11 (289 of 424, 68.16%)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born): +1, +2, +3, +4, -5, +6, -7, +8, +9, +10, +11 (277 of 424, 65.33%)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate): -1, -2, -3, +4, -5, -6, -7, -8, +9, -10, -11 (145 of 424, 34.20%)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody): +1, +2, +3, -4, +5, +6, +7, -8, -9, -10, -11 (261 of 424, 61.56%)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book): +1, +2, +3, +4, -5, +6, -7, +8, +9, -10, -11 (269 of 424, 63.44%)

Best Actress

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the nominee in the lowest grossing film in this category at the time of the nominations announcement, you’ve won 36 of the last 40 ceremonies (90%). Advantage: Close, Colman, Gaga, McCarthy

2) As long as you’re not your film’s only chance of winning an Oscar, you’ve won 35 of 40 times (87.5%). Advantage: Aparicio, Colman, Gaga, McCarthy

3) Those who also received a Golden Globe for Best Actress the same year have won the Best Actress Oscar 34 of 50 (85%). Advantage: Close, Colman

4) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 31 of 40 (77.5%). Advantage: Close, Colman, Gaga, McCarthy

5) Playing an American has helped the winner in this category 31 of 40 (77.5%). Advantage: Close, Colman, Gaga, McCarthy

6) The SAG Award winner in this category has gone on to win the Oscar in the same category 18 of 24 (75%). Advantage: Close

7) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 29 of 40 (72.5%). Advantage: Aparicio, Close, Gaga

8) The Best Actress winner has starred in a Best Picture nominee 26 of 40 (65%). Advantage: Aparicio, Colman, Gaga

9) If the screenplay you worked on was adapted from another medium, you’ve won here 22 of 40 (55%). Advantage: Close, Gaga

10) First time Best Actress nominees have won 20 of 40 (50%). “Advantage”: Aparicio, Colma, Gaga, McCarthy

11) The winner of the Best Actress BAFTA has won here 18 of 40 (45%). “Advantage”: Colman

By The Numbers

Close has the sentiment, and would truly be deserving of the win for her performance this year, but is a mere 0.47% behind Lady Gaga in our estimations, close enough for a virtual tie. Like that really helped, didn’t it?

Yalitza Aparicio (Roma): -1, +2, -3, -4, -5, -6, +7, +8, -9, +10, -11 (184 of 424, 43.40%)
Glenn Close (The Wife): +1, -2, +3, +4, +5, +6, +7, -8, +9, -10, -11 (262 of 424, 61.79%)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite): +1, +2, +3, +4, -5, -6, -7, +8, -9, +10, +11 (244 of 424, 57.55%)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born): +1, +2, -3, +4, +5, -6, +7, +8, +9, +10, -11 (264 of 424, 62.26%)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?): +1, +2, -3, +4, +5, -6, -7, -8, -9, +10, -11 (230 of 424, 54.25%)

Thank you for taking the time to check us out.

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Animated Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Cinematography
Best Production Design
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Editing
Best Costume Design
Best Score
Best Sound Effects and Best Sound Mixing
Best Documentary Feature

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