Oscar Handicap 2019: Best Director

Here, we will look at the recent voting patterns for the category of Best Director.

1) Best Director winners have also been nominated for the same award at the BAFTAs 26 of the last 28 years (92.9%), when British and American releases started to better align themselves. Advantage: Cuarón, Lanthimos, Lee, Pawlikowski

2) Winners of the Directors’ Guild Award for Best Director have gone on to win here 62 of the 69 times the former award has been given (89.7%). Advantage: Cuarón

3) As long as you’re not the oldest nominee, you’ve won here 35 of 40 (87.5%). Advantage: Cuarón, Lanthimos, McKay, Pawlikowski

4) Directors who have directed at least one of their actors to a nomination have won 35 of 40 (87.5%). Advantage: Cuarón, Lanthimos, Lee, McKay

5) Directors of movies released after September 30th have won here 31 of 40 times (77.5%). Advantage: Cuarón, Lanthimos, McKay, Pawlikowski

6) Movies based on works of fiction have won 28 of 40 (70%). Advantage: Pawlikowski

7) The film with the most nominations has won for Best Director 28 of 40 (70%). Advantage: Cuarón, Lanthimos

8) Directors who have directed two or more of their actors to a nomination have won 25 of 40 (62.5%). Advantage: Cuarón, Lanthimos, McKay

9) First-time nominees in this category have won 24 of 40 (60%). Advantage: Pawlikowski

10) Xenophobia is still (mostly) alive, with American-born filmmakers winning 23 of 40 (57.5%). Advantage: Lee, McKay

11) Directors who are not writers of their projects have won 23 of 40 (57.5%). Advantage: Lanthimos

12) Directors who are also producers on their film have won 23 of 40 (57.5%). Advantage: Cuarón, Lanthimos, Lee, McKay

13) Movies primarily set outside the past twenty years have won here 22 of 40 (55%). Advantage: Cuarón, Lanthimos, Lee, Pawlikowski

By The Numbers

Damnit, Spike Lee better fucking win here. Shame Academy voter history is not on his side. Our statistics have called this category 11 times of the 13 years we did this, a pretty stellar 84.6% of the time. We hope we’re wrong this time.

Alfonso Cuarón (Roma): +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, -6, +7, +8, -9, -10, -11, +12, +13 (349 of 537, 64.99%)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite): +1, -2, +3, +4, +5, -6, +7, +8, -9, -10, +11, +12, +13 (300 of 537, 55.87%)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman): -1, +2, -3, -4, +5, -6, -7, -8, -9, +10, -11, +12, +13 (222 of 537, 41.34%)
Adam McKay (Vice): -1, -2, +3, +4, +5, -6, -7, +8, -9, +10, -11, +12, -13 (256 0f 527, 47.64%)
Paweł Pawlikowski (Cold War): +1, -2, +3, -4, +5, +6, -7, -8, +9, -10, -11, -12, +13 (272 of 537, 50.65%)

Thank you for taking the time to check us out.

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Animated Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Cinematography
Best Production Design
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Editing
Best Costume Design
Best Score
Best Sound Effects and Best Sound Mixing
Best Documentary Feature

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