Oscar Handicap 2014: Foreign Language Film

We continue our annual Oscar Handicap with the Best Foreign Language Film category.

(For explanations as to how our scoring system works, make sure to read our first article in the series, Best Picture of the Year, linked at the bottom of this article.)

They might not have the audience they once enjoyed during the days of Bergman, Kurosawa and Truffaut, but films made outside of the United States often tell us stories American filmmakers can not or will not tell. This year’s batch, from the painful end of a beautiful love story to an epic tale of travel across the Pacific in a small wooden raft, continues the fine tradition of honoring some of the best films from the rest of the world.

The Breakdowns

1) As long as your film does not have the shortest running time, you’ve won 31 of the last 35 ceremonies (88.57%). Advantage: The Broken Circle Breakdown, The Great Beauty, The Hunt, Omar

2) Films released in the United States prior to the end of final balloting have won 23 of 35 (65.71%). Advantage: The Broken Circle Breakdown, The Great Beauty, The Hunt

3) Films submitted from a country in Western Europe have won 22 of 35 (62.86%). Advantage: The Broken Circle, The Hunt

4) The winner of the Golden Globe for Best Foreign Language Film has gone on to win here 21 of 35 (60%). Advantage: The Great Beauty

5) Stories set predominantly outside the past twenty years have won 20 of 35 (57.14%). Advantage: The Missing Picture

By The Numbers

We have a statistical dead heat between the Belgian and Danish entires, with the Italians close behind.

“The Broken Circle Breakdown” (Belgium): +1, +2, +3, -4, -5 (101 of 170, 59.41%)

“The Great Beauty” (Italy): +1, +2, -3, +4, -5 (99 of 170, 58.24%)

“The Hunt” (Denmark): +1, +2, +3, -4, -5 (101 of 170, 59.41%)

“The Missing Picture” (Cambodia): -1, -2, -3, -4, +5 (57 of 170, 33.53%)

“Omar” (Canada): +1, -2, -3, -4, -5 (83 of 170, 48.82%)

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature