Oscar Handicap 2013: Foreign Language Film

We continue our annual Oscar Handicap with the Best Foreign Language Film category.

(For explanations as to how our scoring system works, make sure to read our first article in the series, Best Picture of the Year, linked at the bottom of this article.)

They might not have the audience they once enjoyed during the days of Bergman, Kurosawa and Truffaut, but films made outside of the United States often tell us stories American filmmakers can not or will not tell. This year’s batch, from the painful end of a beautiful love story to an epic tale of travel across the Pacific in a small wooden raft, continues the fine tradition of honoring some of the best films from the rest of the world.

The Breakdowns

1) As long as your film does not have the shortest running time, you’ve won 30 of the last 34 ceremonies (88.24%). Advantage: Bullhead, Footnote, In Darkness, A Separation

2) Films released in the United States prior to the end of final balloting have won 22 of 34 (64.71%). Advantage: Amour, No, A Royal Affair

3) Films submitted from a country in Western Europe have won 21 of 34 (61.76%). Advantage: Amour, Kon-Tiki, A Royal Affair

4) Stories set predominantly outside the past twenty years have won 20 of 34 (58.82%). Advantage: Kon-Tiki, No, A Royal Affair

5) The winner of the Golden Globe for Best Foreign Language Film has gone on to win here 20 of 34 (58.82%). Advantage: Amour

6) When one of the Foreign Language nominees has also been nominated for another Oscar, that film has won in this category 9 of 17 (52.94%). Advantage: Amour

By The Numbers

Amour is the highest profile title in this group, and should bring Mr. Haneke his first long-deserved Oscar, but the Danish entry could be a major spoiler

“Amour” (Austria): +1, +2, +3, -4, +5, +6 (116 of 187, 62.03%)

“Kon-Tiki” (Norway): +1, -2, +3, +4, -5, -6 (105 of 187, 56.15%)

“No” (Chile): +1, +2, -3, +4, -5, -6 (107 of 187, 57.22%)

“A Royal Affair” (Denmark): +1, +2, +3, +4, -5, -6 (115 of 187, 61.50%)

“War Witch” (Canada): -1, -2, -3, -4, -5, -6 (65 of 187, 34.76%)

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature