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Oscar Handicap 2007: Foreign Language Film
By EdwardHavens
February 7th, 2007
We continue our annual Oscar Handicap with the Best Foreign Language Film category.
(For explanations as to how our scoring system works, make sure to read our first article in the series, Best Picture of the Year, linked at the bottom of this article.) With the continued globalization of cinema and a rediscovery of foreign language films by American audiences, some have argued the need for this category, especially this year, when four of the five eventual nominees were released into theatres during the regular calendar year (most often in years past, only one or two nominees would ever find their way into theatres, and usually not until after the nominations or awards were announced).
The Breakdowns
1) Films released in the United States prior to the start of final balloting have won 22 of the past 28 times (78.57%). Advantage: Days of Glory, The Lives of Others, Pan's Labyrinth, Water
2) Films submitted from a country in Western Europe have won 20 of 28 times (71.43%). Advantage: After the Wedding, The Lives of Others
3) As long as your film does not have the longest running time, you've won 20 of 28 times (71.43%). Advantage: After the Wedding, Days of Glory, Pan's Labyrinth, Water
4) Stories set in the past have won 16 of 28 times (59.26%). Advantage: Days of Glory, The Lives of Others, Pan's Labyrinth
5) The winner of the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar has won at least one award at the Cannes, Toronto or Venice Film Festival 15 or 28 times (53.57%). Advantage: Days of Glory
By The Numbers
The fourth film to be nominated from Algeria is the slight statistical favorite to win, which would make it the second winner submitted from the North African country, after Costa-Gavras's Z
After the Wedding (Denmark): -1, +2, +3, -4, -5 (71 of 140, 50.71%)
Days of Glory (Algeria): +1, -2, +3, +4, +5 (81 of 140, 57.86%)
The Lives of Others (Germany): +1, +2, -3, +4, -5 (79 of 140, 56.43%)
Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico): +1, -2, +3, +4, -5 (79 of 140, 56.43%)
Water (Canada): +1, -2, +3, -4, -5 (75 of 140, 53.57%)
Find out who wins this year's Oscars, when the Academy Awards for outstanding film achievements of 2006 are presented on Sunday, February 25, at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood, televised live on ABC beginning at 5 PM PST/8 PM EST. A one-hour red carpet arrivals show will precede the telecast at 4 PM PST/7 PM EST.
Addition articles in this series:
Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Score, Best Editing and Best Art Direction
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Animated Feature
Other stories by EdwardHavens
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