Oscar Handicap 2018: Supporting Actor and Actress

In this article, we will examine recent voting patterns for the two Supporting Acting categories.

Best Supporting Actor

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 34 of the past 39 times (87.2%). Advantage: Dafoe, Harrelson, Jenkins, Plummer

2) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 33 of 39 (84.6%). Advantage: Dafoe, Harrelson, Jenkins, Rockwell

3) Xenophobia is alive and well in this category, as actors playing American characters have won 29 of 39 (74.4%). Advantage: All nominees in this category

4) Actors from movies with a nominated screenplay have won 28 of 39 (71.8%). Advantage: Harrelson, Jenkins, Rockwell

5) Winners in this category have represent films without a Best Actor nominee 27 of 39 (69.2%). Advantage: All nominees in this category

6) The Winner of the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor has won here 25 of 39 (64.1%). Advantage: Rockwell

7) SAG winners for Best Supporting Actor went on to win the Oscar 14 times of the 23 years the former awards have been handed out (60.9%). Advantage: Rockwell

8) The winner of the Critics Choice Award for Best Supporting Actor also wins here 12 of the 22 times the Broadcast Film Critics Association has handed out awards (54.5%). Advantage: Rockwell

9) If you were also nominated for a BAFTA for the same category, you’ve won here 21 of 39 (53.8%). Advantage: Dafoe, Harrelson, Plummer, Rockwell

10) If you are a first time Oscar nominee in any category, you’ve won Best Supporting Actor 20 of 39 (51.3%). Advantage: Rockwell

By The Numbers
Sam Rockwell appears to have the momentum in this category, but don’t be too surprised if his Three Billboards co-star and previous Oscar nominee Woody Harrelson sneaks in with a win.

Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project): +1, +2, +3, -4, +5, -6, -7, -8, +9, -10 (187 of 357, 52.38%)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri): +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, -6, -7, -8, +9, -10 (224 of 357, 62.75%)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water): +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, -6, -7, -8, -9, -10 (221 of 357, 61.90%)
Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World): +1, -2, +3, -4, +5, -6, -7, -8, +9, -10 (168 of 357, 47.06%)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri): -1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6, +7, +8, +9, +10 (214 of 357, 59.94%)

Best Supporting Actress

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the nominee from the lowest grossing film, you’ve won 37 of 39 (94.9%). Advantage: Janney, Manville, Metcalf, Spencer

2) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 34 of 39 (87.2%). Advantage: Blige, Janney, Manville, Metcalf

3) If your film does not have a co-star nominated in the Best Actress race, you’ve won here 30 of 39 (76.9%). Advantage: Blige, Manville

4) Actresses who played fictional characters have won here 29 of 39 (74.4%). Advantage: Blige, Manville, Metcalf, Spencer

5) Playing a character coming from a nominated screenplay has led to a win here 29 of 39 (74.4%). Advantage: Bilge, Metcalf, Spencer

6) First-time Oscar nominees have won in this category 28 of 39 (71.8%). Advantage: Bilge, Janney, Manville, Metcalf

7) SAG winners for Best Supporting Actress went on to win the Oscar 16 times of the 23 years the former awards have been handed out (69.6%). Advantage: Janney

8) Xenophobia is alive and well in this category, as actors playing American characters have won 27 of 39 (69.2%). Advantage: Blige, Janney, Metcalf, Spencer

9) Acting in a film nominated for Best Picture has helped you win here 25 of 39 (64.1%). Advantage: Manville, Metcalf, Spencer

10) The winner of the Critics Choice Award for Best Supporting Actress has gone on to win here 14 of the 22 years the Broadcast Film Critics Association has been handing out awards (63.6%). Advantage: Janney

11) The winner of the Golden Globe in this category has gone on to win the Oscar 21 of 39 (53.8%). Advantage: Janney

12) A BAFTA nominee for Best Supporting Actress has won here 20 of 39 (51.3%). Advantage: Janney, Manville, Metcalf, Spencer

By The Numbers 
Alison Janney has the momentum, but our numbers are telling us Laurie Metcalf will go home the winner this time around.

Mary J. Blige (Mudbound): -1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6, -7, +8, -9, -10, -11, -12 (191 of 435, 43.91%)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya): +1, +2, -3, -4, -5, +6, +7, +8, -9, +10, +11, +12 (240 of 435, 55.17%)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread): +1, +2, +3, +4, -5, +6, -7, -8, +9, -10, -11, +12 (258 of 435, 59.31%)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird): +1, +2, -3, +4, +5, +6, -7, +8, +9, -10, -11, +12 (271 of 435, 62.30%)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water): +1, -2, -3, +4, +5, -6, -7, +8, +9, -10, -11, -12 (224 of 435, 51.49%)

Thank you for taking the time to check us out.

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Production Design
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Editing
Best Costume Design
Best Score
Best Sound Effects and Best Sound Mixing
Best Documentary Feature
Best Visual Effects

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