Oscar Handicap 2018: Leading Actor and Actress

Here, we will examine the results of voting patterns for Best Actor and Best Actress.

Best Actor

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not your film’s only chance of winning an Oscar, you’ve won 37 of 39 times (94.9%). Advantage: Chalamet, Day-Lewis, Kaluuya, Oldman

2) As long as you’re not the nominee in the lowest grossing film in this category at the time of the nomination announcements, you’ve won 36 of 39 (92.3%). Advantage: Chalamet, Kaluuya, Oldman, Washington

3) If your performance was in a movie also nominated for Best Picture, you’ve won 31 of 39 (79.5%). Advantage: Chalamet, Day-Lewis, Kaluuya, Oldman

4) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 31 of 39 (79.5%). Advantage: Day-Lewis, Kaluuya, Oldman, Washington

5) The SAG Award winner in this category has gone on to win the Oscar in the same category 18 of the 23 times the former award has been awarded (79.8%). Advantage: Oldman

6) A nominee for Best Actor at the BAFTA’s has won in this category 29 of 39 (74.4%). Advantage: Chalamet, Day-Lewis, Kaluuya, Oldman

7) Those who also received a Golden Globe for Best Actor the same year have won the Best Actor Oscar 29 of 39 (74.4%). Advantage: Oldman

8) Playing an American? You win 25 of 39 (64.1%). Advantage: Chalamet, Kaluuya, Washington

9) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 23 of 39 (59%). Advantage: Chalamet, Day-Lewis, Kaluuya, Washington

10) Those previously nominated for an Oscar have won the Best Actor Oscar 23 of 39 (59%). Advantage: Day-Lewis, Oldman, Washington

11) Actors working from a screenplay adapted from a previously published work have won 21 of 39 (53.8%). Advantage: Chalamet

By the Numbers…

Anything that helps brings Gary Oldman any kind of public recognition is a good thing in our book.

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name: +1, +2, +3, -4, -5, +6, -7, +8, +9, -10, +11 (241 of 452, 53.32%)
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread: +1, -2, +3, +4, -5, +6, -7, -8, +9, +10, -11 (224 of 452, 49.56%)
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out: +1, +2, +3, +4, -5, +6, -7, +8, +9, -10, -11 (261 of 452, 57.74%)
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6, +7, -8, -9, +10, -11 (282 of 452, 62.39%)
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.: -1, +2, -3, +4, -5, -6, -7, +8, +9, +10, -11 (191 of 452, 42.26%)

Best Actress

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the nominee in the lowest grossing film in this category at the time of the nominations announcement, you’ve won 35 of the last 39 ceremonies (89.7%). Advantage: Hawkins, McDormand, Ronan, Streep

2) As long as you’re not your film’s only chance of winning an Oscar, you’ve won 34 of 39 times (87.2%). Advantage: All nominees in this category

3) Those who also received a Golden Globe for Best Actress the same year have won the Best Actress Oscar 33 of 39 (84.6%). Advantage: McDormand, Ronan

4) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 30 of 39 (76.9%). Advantage: Hawkins, McDormand, Robbie, Streep

5) Playing an American has helped the winner in this category 30 of 39 (76.9%). Advantage: All nominees in this category

6) The SAG Award winner in this category has gone on to win the Oscar in the same category 17 of 23 (73.9%). Advantage: McDormand

7) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 28 of 39 (71.8%). Advantage: Hawkins, McDormand, Ronan

8) The Best Actress winner has starred in a Best Picture nominee 25 of 39 (64.1%). Advantage: Hawkins, McDormand, Ronan, Streep

9) If the screenplay you worked on was adapted from another medium, you’ve won here 22 of 39 (56.4%). Advantage: None of the nominees in this category

10) First time Best Actress nominees have won 20 of 39 (51.3%). Advantage: Hawkins, Robbie

11) The winner of the Best Actress BAFTA has won here 17 of 39 (43.6%). “Advantage”: McDormand

By The Numbers

Frances McDormand for the motherfucking win!

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water: +1, +2, -3, +4, +5, -6, +7, +8, -9, +10, -11 (253 of 413, 61.26%)
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6, +7, +8, -9, -10, +11 (285 of 413, 69.01%)
Margot Robbie, I Tonya: -1, +2, -3, +4, +5, -6, -7, -8, -9, +10, -11 (194 of 413, 46.97%)
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird: +1, +2, +3, -4, +5, -6, +7, +8, -9, -10, -11 (258 of 413, 62.47%)
Meryl Streep, The Post: +1, +2, -3, +4, +5, -6, -7, +8, -9, -10, -11 (235 of 413, 56.90%)

Thank you for taking the time to check us out.

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Production Design
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Editing
Best Costume Design
Best Score
Best Sound Effects and Best Sound Mixing
Best Documentary Feature
Best Visual Effects

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