Oscar Handicap 2018: Best Director

Here, we will look at the recent voting patterns for the category of Best Director.

1) Best Director winners have also been nominated for the same award at the BAFTAs 25 of the last 27 years (92.6%), when British and American releases started to better align themselves. Advantage: del Toro, Nolan

2) Winners of the Directors’ Guild Award for Best Director have gone on to win here 61 of the 68 times the former award has been given (89.7%). Advantage: del Toro

3) As long as you’re not the oldest nominee, you’ve won here 35 of 39 (89.7%). Advantage: Anderson, Gerwig, Nolan, Peele

4) Directors who have directed at least one of their actors to a nomination have won 34 of 39 (87.2%). Advantage: Anderson, del Toro, Gerwig, Peele

5) Directors of movies released after September 30th have won here 30 of 39 times (76.9%). Advantage: Anderson, del Toro, Gerwig

6) Movies based on works of fiction have won 27 of 39 (69.2%). Advantage: Anderson, del Toro, Gerwig, Peele

7) The film with the most nominations has won for Best Director 27 of 39 (69.2%). Advantage: del Toro

8) Directors who have directed two or more of their actors to a nomination have won 24 of 39 (61.5%). Advantage: Anderson, del Toro, Gerwig

9) Xenophobia is still (mostly) alive, with American-born filmmakers winning 23 of 39 (59%). Advantage: Anderson, Gerwig, Peele

10) Directors who are not writers of their projects have won 23 of 39 (59%). Advantage: None of the nominees in this category

11) First-time nominees in this category have won 23 of 39 (59%). Advantage: del Toro, Gerwig, Nolan, Peele

12) Directors who are also producers on their film have won 22 of 39 (56.4%). Advantage: Anderson, del Toro, Nolan, Peele

13) Movies primarily set outside the past twenty years have won here 21 of 39 (53.8%). Advantage: Anderson, del Toro, Nolan

By The Numbers

Guillermo del Toro looks to be the third Mexican filmmaker to win the Academy Award for Best Director in five years.

Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread: -1, -2, +3, +4, +5, +6, -7, +8, +9, -10, -11, +12, +13 (269 of 524, 51.34%)
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water: +1, +2, -3, +4, +5, +6, +7, +8, -9, -10, +11, +12, +13 (330 of 524, 62.98%)
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird: -1, -2, +3, +4, +5, +6, -7, +8, +9, -10, +11, -12, -13 (268 of 524, 51.15%)
Jordan Peele, Get Out: -1, -2, +3, +4, -5, +6, -7, -8, +9, -10, +11, +12, -13 (343 of 524, 46.27%)
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk: +1, -2, +3, -4, -5, -6, -7, -8, -9, -10, +11, +12, +13 (218 0f 524, 41.60%)

Thank you for taking the time to check us out.

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Production Design
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Editing
Best Costume Design
Best Score
Best Sound Effects and Best Sound Mixing
Best Documentary Feature
Best Visual Effects

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