Oscar Handicap 2017: Director

Here, we will look at the recent voting patterns for the category of Best Director.

Four first-time directing nominees go up against a past Best Director winner.

The Breakdowns

1) Best Director winners have also been nominated for the same award at the BAFTAs 24 of the last 25 years (96%), when British and American releases started to better align themselves. Advantage: Chazelle, Lonergan, Villeneuve

2) Winners of the Directors’ Guild Award for Best Director have gone on to win here 60 of the 67 times the former award has been given (89.6%). Advantage: Chazelle

3) As long as you’re not the oldest nominee, you’ve won here 34 of 38 (89.5%). Advantage: Chazelle, Jenkins, Lonergan, Villeneuve

4) Directors who have directed at least one of their actors to a nomination have won 33 of 38 (86.8%). Advantage: Chazelle, Gibson, Jenkins, Lonergan

5) Directors of movies released after September 30th have won here 29 of 38 times (76.3%). Advantage: Chazelle, Gibson, Jenkins, Lonergan, Villeneuve

6) Movies based on works of fiction have won 26 of 38 (68.4%). Advantage: Chazelle, Jenkins, Lonergan, Villeneuve

7) The film with the most nominations has won for Best Director 26 of 38 (68.4%). Advantage: Chazelle

8) Directors who are not writers of their projects have won 23 of 38 (60.5%). Advantage: Gibson, Villeneuve

9) Xenophobia is still (mostly) alive, with American-born filmmakers winning 22 of 38 (57.9%). Advantage: Chazelle, Gibson, Jenkins, Lonergan

10) First-time nominees in this category have won 22 of 38 (57.9%). Advantage: Chazelle, Jenkins, Lonergan, Villeneuve

11) Directors who are also producers on their film have won 22 of 38 (57.9%). Advantage: None. For the first time since 1999, none of the directors were producers on their own film.

12) Movies primarily set outside the past twenty years have won here 21 of 38 (55.3%). Advantage: Gibson

 

By The Numbers

Chazelle is a shoe-in for his contemporary homage of the Golden Age of Movie Musicals.

Damiel Chazelle, “La La Land”: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6, +7, -8, -9, +10, -11, -12 (324 of 472, 68.6%)

Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge”: -1, -2, -3, +4, +5, -6, -7, +8, +9, -10, -11, +12 (196 of 472, 41.5%)

Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”: -1, -2, +3, +4, +5, +6, -7, -8, +9, +10, -11, -12 (234 of 472, 49.6%)

Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”: +1, -2, +3, +4, +5, +6, -7, -8, +9, +10, -11, -12 (257 of 472, 54.4%)

Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”: +1, -2, +3, -4, +5, +6, -7, +8, -9, +10, -11, -12 (231 of 472, 48.9%)

 

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature