Oscar Handicap 2017: Leading Actor and Actress

Here, we will examine the results of voting patterns for Best Actor and Best Actress.

Best Actor

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not your film’s only chance of winning an Oscar, you’ve won 36 of 38 times (94.7%). Advantage: Affleck, Garfield, Gosling, Washington

2) As long as you’re not the nominee in the lowest grossing film in this category at the time of the nomination announcements, you’ve won 35 of 38 (92.1%). Advantage: Affleck, Garfield, Gosling, Washington

3) The SAG Award winner in this category has gone on to win the Oscar in the same category 18 of the 22 times the former award has been awarded (81.8%). Advantage: Washington

4) If your performance was in a movie also nominated for Best Picture, you’ve won 30 of 38 (78.9%). Advantage: Affleck, Garfield, Gosling, Washington

5) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 30 of 38 (78.9%). Advantage: Affleck, Gosling, Mortensen, Washington

6) A nominee for Best Actor at the BAFTA’s has won in this category 28 of 38 (73.7%). Advantage: Affleck, Garfield, Gosling, Mortensen

7) Those who also received a Golden Globe for Best Actor the same year have won the Best Actor Oscar 28 of 38 (73.7%). Advantage: Affleck, Gosling

8) Playing an American? You win 24 of 38 (63.2%). Advantage: Affleck, Garfield, Gosling, Mortensen, Washington

9) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 22 of 38 (57.9%). Advantage: Affleck, Gosling, Mortensen, Washington

10) Those previously nominated for an Oscar have won the Best Actor Oscar 22 of 38 (57.9%). Advantage: Affleck, Gosling, Mortensen, Washington

11) Actors working from a screenplay adapted from a previously published work have won 21 of 38 (55.3%). Advantage: Washington

By The Numbers

We here at FilmJerk been a champion of Mr. Affleck’s since The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford, and we’re pleased as punch to see him racking up so many accolades this year. But he’s got some real tight competition this year.

Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”: +1, +2, -3, +4, +5, +6, +7, +8, +9, +10, -11 (276 of 402, 68.7%)

Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”: +1, +2, -3, +4, -5, +6, -7, +8, -9, -10, -11 (208 of 402, 51.7%)

Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”: +1, +2, -3, +4, +5, +6, +7, +8, +9, +10, -11 (276 of 402, 68.7%)

Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”: -1, -2, -3, -4, +5, +6, -7, +8, +9, +10, -11 (170 of 402, 42.3%)

Denzel Washington, “Fences”: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, -6, -7, +8, +9, +10, +11 (258 of 402, 64.2%)

Best Actress

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the nominee in the lowest grossing film in this category at the time of the nominations announcement, you’ve won 34 of the last 38 ceremonies (89.5%). Advantage: Negga, Portman, Stone, Streep

2) As long as you’re not your film’s only chance of winning an Oscar, you’ve won 33 of 38 times (86.8%). Advantage: Portman, Stone, Streep

3) Those who also received a Golden Globe for Best Actress the same year have won the Best Actress Oscar 32 of 38 (84.2%). Advantage: Huppert, Stone

4) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 30 of 38 (78.9%). Advantage: Huppert, Negga, Portman, Streep

5) Playing an American has helped the winner in this category 29 of 38 (76.3%). Advantage: Negga, Portman, Stone, Streep

6) The SAG Award winner in this category has gone on to win the Oscar in the same category 16 of 22 (72.7%). Advantage: Stone

7) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 27 of 38 (71.1%). Advantage: Huppert, Stone

8) The Best Actress winner has starred in a Best Picture nominee 24 of 38 (63.2%). Advantage: Stone

9) Actresses working from materials previously published or produced have won 22 of 38 (51.43%). Advantage: Huppert, Negga

By The Numbers

Emma Stone is the clear favorite to go home with a new man Sunday.

Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”: -1, -2, +3, +4, -5, -6, +7, -8, +9 (149 of 326, 45.7%)

Ruth Negga, “Loving”: +1, -2, -3, +4, +5, -6, -7, -8, +9 (157 of 326, 48.2%)

Natalie Portman, “Jackie”: +1, +2, -3, +4, +5, -6, -7, -8, -9 (184 of 326, 56.4%)

Emma Stone, “La La Land”: +1, +2, +3, -4, +5, +6, +7, +8, -9 (219 of 326, 67.2%)

Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”: +1, +2, -3, +4, +5, -6, -7, -8, -9 (184 of 326, 56.4%)

 

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature