Oscar Handicap 2017: Supporting Actor and Actress

In this article, we will examine recent voting patterns for the two Supporting Acting categories.

 

Best Supporting Actor

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 33 of the past 38 times (86.8%). Advantage: Ali, Bridges, Patel, Shannon

2) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 32 of 38 (84.2%). Advantage: Ali, Bridges, Hedges, Shannon

3) Xenophobia is alive and well in this category, as actors playing American characters have won 28 of 38 (73.7%). Advantage: Ali, Bridges, Hedges, Shannon

4) Actors from movies with a nominated screenplay have won 27 of 38 (71.1%). Advantage: Ali, Bridges, Hedges, Patel

5) Winners in this category have represent films without a Best Actor nominee 26 of 38 (68.4%). Advantage: Ali, Bridges, Patel, Shannon

6) SAG winners for Best Supporting Actor went on to win the Oscar 13 times of the 22 years the former awards have been handed out (59.1%). Advantage: Ali

By The Numbers
First-time nominee Mahershala Ali has a slight advantage over The Dude.

Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6 (159 of 212, 75%)
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, -6 (155 of 212, 73.1%)
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”: -1, +2, +3, +4, +5, -6 (113 of 212, 53.3%)
Dev Patel, “Lion”: +1, -2, -3, +4, +5, -6 (111 of 212, 52.4%)
Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”: +1, +2, +3, -4, +5, -6 (139 of 212, 65.6%)

Best Supporting Actress

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the nominee from the lowest grossing film, you’ve won 36 of 38 (94.7%). Advantage: Davis, Kidman, Spencer, Williams

2) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 33 of 38 (86.8%). Advantage: Davis, Harris, Kidman, Spencer

3) Actresses who played fictional characters have won here 28 of 38 (73.7%). Advantage: Davis, Harris, Williams

4) First-time Oscar nominees have won in this category 28 of 38 (73.7%). Advantage: Harris

5) Xenophobia is alive and well in this category, as actors playing American characters have won 26 of 38 (68.4%). Advantage: Davis, Harris, Spencer, Williams

6) SAG winners for Best Supporting Actress went on to win the Oscar 15 times of the 22 years the former awards have been handed out (68.2%). Advantage: Davis

7) The winner of the Golden Globe in this category has gone on to win the Oscar 20 of 38 (52.6%). Advantage: Davis

By The Numbers 
The mystery of how Viola Davis had not yet won an Oscar (or three) is an absurd reality that should be repaired in a few days.

Viola Davis, “Fences”: +1, +2, +3, -4, +5, +6, +7 (168 of 250, 67.2%)

Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”: -1, +2, +3, +4, +5, -6, -7 (142 of 250, 56.8%)

Nicole Kidman, “Lion”: +1, +2, -3, -4, -5, -6, -7 (126 of 250, 50.4%)

Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”: +1, +2, -3, -4, +5, -6, -7 (140 of 250, 56%)

Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”: +1, -2, +3, -4, +5, -6, -7 (130 of 250, 52%)

 

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature

Share