Oscar Handicap 2013: Supporting Actor and Actress

In this article, we will examine recent voting patterns for the two Supporting Acting categories.

(For explanations as to how our scoring system works, make sure to read our first article in the series, Best Picture of the Year, linked at the bottom of this article.)

Best Supporting Actor

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 29 of the past 34 times (85.29%). Advantage: Arkin, De Niro, Jones, Waltz

2) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 29 of 34 (85.29%). Advantage: Arkin, De Niro, Hoffman, Waltz

3) Xenophobia is alive and well in this category, as actors playing American characters have won 26 of 34 (76.47%). Advantage: Arkin, De Niro, Hoffman, Jones

4) Winners in this category have represent films without a Best Actor nominee 23 of 34 (67.65%). Advantage: Arkin, Waltz

5) Actors from movies with original screenplays have won 23 of 34 (67.65%). Advantage: Hoffman, Waltz

6) The winner of the Golden Globe in this category has gone on to win the Oscar 21 of 34 (61.76%). Advantage: Waltz

7) SAG winners for Best Supporting Actor went on to win the Oscar 11 times of the 18 years the former awards have been handed out (61.11%). Advantage: Jones

By The Numbers

The one truly up in the air major category is likely to go to Waltz’s second collaboration with Quentin Tarantino

Alan Arkin, “Argo”: +1, +2, +3, +4, -5, -6, -7 (138 of 222, 62.16%)

Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook”: +1, +2, +3, -4, -5, -6, -7 (126 of 222, 56.76%)

Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”: -1, +2, +3, -4, +5, -6, -7 (114 of 222, 51.35%)

Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”: +1, -2, +3, -4, -5, -6, +7 (106 of 222, 47.75%)

Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”: +1, +2, -3, +4, +5, +6, -7 (145 of 222, 65.32%)

Best Supporting Actress

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the nominee from the lowest grossing film, you’ve won 32 of 34 (94.12%). Advantage: Adams, Field, Hathaway, Weaver

2) Actresses who played fictional characters have won here 26 of 34 (76.47%). Advantage: Adams, Hathaway, Hunt, Weaver

3) Xenophobia is alive and well in this category, as actresses playing American characters have won 26 of 34 (75.76%). Advantage: Adams, Field, Hunt, Weaver

4) Winners were come from a film without a nominee for Best Actress 25 of 34 (73.53%). Advantage: Adams, Field, Hathaway, Hunt

5) First-time Oscar nominees have won in this category 24 of 34 (70.59%). Advantage: Hathaway

6) The Best Supporting Actress winner has been honored for their performance in a Best Picture nominee 22 of 34 (64.71%). Advantage: Field, Hathaway, Weaver

6) SAG winners for Best Supporting Actress went on to win the Oscar 11 times of the 18 years the former awards have been handed out (61.11%). Advantage: Hathaway

7) The winner of the Golden Globe in this category has gone on to win the Oscar 18 of 34 (52.94%). Advantage: Hathaway

8) Playing a character from an original screenplay has helped the winner 18 of 34 (52.94%). Advantage: Adams

By The Numbers

Anne Hathaway is one with awards momentum and should take home her first Oscar this year.

Amy Adams, “The Master”: +1, +2, +3, +4, -5, -6, -7, -8, +9 (171 of 290, 58.97%)

Sally Field, “Lincoln”: +1, -2, +3, +4, -5, +6, -7, -8, -9 (162 of 290, 55.86%)

Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”: +1, +2, -3, +4, +5, +6, +7, +8, -9 (182 of 290, 62.76%)

Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”: -1, +2, +3, +,4, -5, -6, -7, -8, -9 (140 of 290, 48.28%)

Jacki Weaver, “Silver Linings Playbook”: +1, +2, +3, -4, -5, +6, -7, -8, -9 (164 of 290, 56.55%)

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature

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