Oscar Handicap 2013: Leading Actor and Actress

Here, we will examine the results of voting patters for Best Actor and Best Actress.

(For explanations as to how our scoring system works, make sure to read our first article in the series, Best Picture of the Year, linked at the bottom of this article.)

Best Actor

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the nominee in the lowest grossing film in this category at the time of the nomination announcements, you’ve won 31 of 34 (91.18%). Advantage: Cooper, Day-Lewis, Jackman, Washington

2) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 27 of 34 (79.41%). Advantage: Day-Lewis, Jackman, Phoenix, Washington

3) The SAG Award winner in this category has gone on to win the Oscar in the same category 14 of the 18 times the former award has been awarded (77.78%). Advantage: Day-Lewis

4) The Best Actor winner has starred in a Best Picture nominee 26 of 34 (76.47%). Advantage: Cooper, Day-Lewis

5) Those who received the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama have won the Best Actor Oscar 22 of 34 (64.71%). Advantage: Day-Lewis

6) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 22 of 34 (64.71%). Advantage: Cooper, Jackman, Phoenix, Washington

7) Playing an American has helped the winner in this category 21 of 34 (61.76%). Advantage: Cooper, Day-Lewis, Phoenix, Washington

8) Actors working from a screenplay adapted from a previously published work have won 19 of 34 (55.88%). Advantage: Cooper, Day-Lewis, Jackman

9) Those previously nominated for an Oscar have won the Best Actor Oscar 19 of 34 (55.88%). Advantage: Day-Lewis, Phoenix, Washington

By The Numbers

Daniel Day-Lewis’s performance as our 16th President should bring the actor his third Oscar

Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”: +1, -2, -3, +4, -5, +6, +7, +8, -9 (157 of 290, 54.14%)

Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”: +1, +2, +3, +4, -5, +6, +7, +8, +9 (191 of 290, 65.86%)

Hugh Jackman, “Les Miserables”: +1, +2, -3, +4, -5, +6, -7, +8, -9 (169 of 290, 58.28%)

Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”: -1, +2, -3, -4, -5, +6, +7, -8, +9 (131 of 290, 45.17%)

Denzel Washington, “Flight”: +1, +2, -3, -4, -5, +6, +7, -8, +9 (159 of 290, 54.83%)

Best Actress

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the nominee in the lowest grossing film in this category at the time of the nomination announcement, you’ve won 32 of the last 34 ceremonies (94.12%). Advantage: Chastain, Lawrence, Wallis, Watts

2) The winner of the Golden Globe for Drama has gone to win here 28 of 34 (82.35%). Advantage: Chastain

3) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 26 of 34 (76.47%). Advantage: Chastain, Lawrence, Riva, Watts

4) Playing an American has helped the winner in this category 25 of 34 (73.53%). Advantage: Chastain, Lawrence, Wallis

5) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 23 of 34 (67.65%). Advantage: Chastain, Lawrence, Riva, Wallis

6) The SAG Award winner in this category has gone on to win the Oscar in the same category 12 of 18 (66.67%). Advantage: Lawrence

7) The Best Actress winner has starred in a Best Picture nominee 22 of 34 (64.71%). Advantage: Chastain, Lawrence, Riva, Wallis

8) First-time nominees in this category have won 18 of 34 (52.94%). Advantage: Chastain, Riva, Wallis

By The Numbers

While Lawrence has the current momentum in the race and Riva has the sentimental vote, the numbers are with Jessica Chastain

Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, -6, +7, +8 (180 of 256, 70.31%)

Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”: +1, -2, +3, +4, +5, +6, +7, -8 (162 of 256, 63.28%)

Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”: -1, -2, +3, -4, +5, -6, +7, +8 (112 of 256, 43.75%)

Quvenzhanex Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”: +1, -2, -3, +4, +5, -6, +7, +8 (140 of 256, 54.69%)

Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”: +1, -2, +3, -4, -5, -6, -7, -8 (118 of 256, 46.09%)

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature

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