Oscar Handicap 2013: Director

Here, we will look at the recent voting patterns for the category of Best Director.

(For explanations as to how our scoring system works, make sure to read our first article in the series, Best Picture of the Year, linked at the bottom of this article.)

With Argo’s much-honored director out of the running here, does that leave this category wide open or is there a clear-cut front-runner?

The Breakdowns

1) Best Director winners often come from films with at least one acting nomination 30 of the last 34 ceremonies (88.24%). Advantage: Haneke, Russell, Spielberg, Zeitlin

2) As long as you’re not the oldest nominee, you’ve won here 30 of 34 (88.24%). Advantage: Lee, Russell, Spielberg, Zeitlin

3) Directors whose movies opened in theatres after September 30th have won 25 of 34 (73.53%). Advantage: Haneke, Lee, Russell, Speilberg

4) Movies primarily set outside the past twenty years have won here 24 of 34 (70.59%). Advantage: Lee, Spielberg

5) Movies based on works of fiction have won 24 of 34 (70.59%). Advantage: Haneke, Lee, Russell, Zeitlin

6) The film with the most nominations has won for Best Director 23 of 34 (67.65%). Advantage: Spielberg

7) Xenophobia is still (mostly) alive, with American-born filmmakers winning 22 of 34 (64.71%). Advantage: Russell, Spielberg, Zeitlin

8) Directors who were not also writers of their project have won 21 of 34 (61.76%). Advantage: Lee, Spielberg

9) First-time nominees in this category have won 21 of 34 (61.76%). Advantage: Haneke, Zeitlin

10) Directors who are also producers on their film have won 18 of 34 (52.94%). Slight advantage: Lee, Spielberg

By The Numbers

Like Scorsese’s first foray in to 3D filmmaking showed how filmmakers can use the re-emerged technology to unobtrusively serve the story, Lee showed a mastery of stereo optical rarely seen with today’s cinema. However, the odds are with Hollywood’s reigning king taking home his third statuette.

Michael Haneke, “Amour”: +1, -2, +3, -4, +5, -6, -7, -8, +9, -10 (166 of 340, 48.82%)

Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”: -1, +2, +3, +4, +5, -6, -7, +8, -9, +10 (182 of 340, 53.53%)

David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”: +1, +2, +3, -4, +5, -6, +7, -8, -9, -10 (194 of 340, 57.06%)

Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”: +1, +2, +3, +4, -5, +6, +7, +8, -9, +10 (216 of 340, 63.53%)

Behn Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”: +1, +2, -3, -4, +5, -6, +7, -8, +9, -10 (186 of 340, 54.71%)

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature

Share