Oscar Handicap 2012: Director

Here, we will look at the recent voting patterns for the category of Best Director.

(For explanations as to how our scoring system works, make sure to read our first article in the series, Best Picture of the Year, linked at the bottom of this article.)

Two great movies about the movies lead the way in one of the best directing contests in Oscar history. Will the Academy look to honor its past (silent, black and white, 1.33:1 aspect ratio) or look forward to its future (3D)?

The Breakdowns

1) The DGA Award winner has also won the Best Directing Oscar 57 of the 63 years the DGA has handed out awards (90.48%). Advantage: Hazanavicius

2) As long as you’re not the oldest nominee, you’ve won here 29 of the last 33 Oscar ceremonies (87.88%). Advantage: Hazanavicius, Malick, Payne, Scorsese

3) Directors whose movies opened in theatres after September 30th have won 24 of 33 (72.73%). Advantage: Hazanavicius, Payne, Scorsese

4) Movies not primarily set within the past twenty years have won here 23 of 33 (69.70%). Advantage: Hazanavicius, Malick, Scorsese

5) The film with the most nominations has won for Best Director 23 of 33 (69.70%). Advantage: Scorsese

6) Directors who were not writers on their project have won 21 of 33 (63.64%). Advantage: Scorsese

7) First-time nominees in this category have won 20 of 33 (60.61%). Advantage: Hazanavicius

8) Directors who movies have two or more acting nominations have won here 20 of 33 (60.16%). Advantage: Hazanavicius

9) Directors who are also producers on their film have won 18 of 33 (54.55%). Slight advantage: Payne, Scorsese

By The Numbers

Personally, we think Scorsese’s first foray in to 3D truly showed how filmmakers can use the re-emerged technology to unobtrusively serve the story, but we’re sure even he won’t be too disappointed to see Hazanavicius win for his love letter to the early days of cinema.

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris: -1, -2, -3, -4, -5, -6, +7, +8, -9 (92 for 327, 28.13%)

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist: +1, +2, +3, +4, -5, -6, +7, +8, -9 (210 for 327, 64.22%)

Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life: -1, +2, -3, +4, -5, -6, -7, -8, -9 (130 for 327, 39.76%)

Alexander Payne, The Descendants: -1, +2, +3, -4, -5, -6, -7, -8, +9 (135 for 327, 41.28%)

Martin Scorsese, Hugo: -1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6, -7, -8, +9 (170 for 327, 51.99%)

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature
The Technical Categories

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