Oscar Handicap 2010: Supporting Actor and Actress

In this article, we will examine recent voting patterns for the two Supporting Acting categories.

(For explanations as to how our scoring system works, make sure to read our first article in the series, Best Picture of the Year, linked at the bottom of this article.)

Best Supporting Actor

When you’ve won every single film award you’ve been nominated for, is there a chance you could lose the biggest prize of all?

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 28 of 31 times (87.10%). Advantage: Harrelson, Plummer, Tucci, Waltz

2) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 26 of 31 times (83.87%). Advantage: Harrelson, Tucci, Waltz

3) As long as you’re not the nominee in the lowest grossing film when the nominations are announced, you’ve won 25 of 31 times (80.65%). Advantage: Damon, Harrelson, Tucci, Waltz

4) Xenophobia is alive and well in this category, as actors playing American characters have won 23 of 31 (74.19%). Advantage: Harrelson, Tucci

5) Best Supporting Actor winners have come from original screenplays 20 of 31 (64.52%). Advantage: Harrelson, Waltz

6) Winners in this category have represent films without a Best Actor nominee 20 of 31 (64.52%). Advantage: Harrelson, Plummer, Tucci, Waltz

7) The winner of the Golden Globe in this category has gone on to win the Oscar 18 of 31 (58.06%). Advantage: Waltz

By The Numbers

Poor Woody. In any other year, he would have been the front runner.

Matt Damon, Invictus: -1, -2, +3, -4, -5, -6, -7

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6, -7

Christopher Plummer, The Last Station, +1, -2, -3, -4, -5, -6, -7

Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones, +1, +2, +3, +4, -5, +6, -7

Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds: +1, +2, +3, -4, +5, +6, +7

Personal prediction for Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz

Personal choice for this category: Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the nominee in the lowest grossing film when the nominations are announced, you’ve won 30 of the last 31 times (96.67%). Advantage: Cruz, Farmiga, Kendrick, Mo’Nique

2) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 27 of 31 (87.10%). Advantage: Cruz, Farmiga, Gyllenhaal, Mo’Nique

3) Winners in this category have represent films without a Best Actress nominee 24 of 31 times (73.33%). Advantage: Cruz, Farmiga, Gyllenhaal, Kendrick

4) First-time nominees in this category have won 21 of 31 times (67.74%). Advantage: Farmiga, Gyllenhaal, Kendrick, Mo’Nique

5) Xenophobia is alive and well in this category, as actresses playing American characters have won 22 of 31 (70.97%). Advantage: Farmiga, Gyllenhaal, Kendrick, Mo’Nique

6) The Best Supporting Actress winner has been honored for their performance in a Best Picture nominee 18 of 31 times (58.06%). Advantage: Farmiga, Kendrick, Mo’Nique

By The Numbers

Although Farmiga has more advantages, we all know Mo’Nique should cap her incredible year with a final victory here

Penelope Cruz, Nine: +1, +2, +3, -4, -5, -6

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6

Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart: -1, +2, +3, +4, +5, -6

Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air: +1, -2, +3, +4, +5, +6

Mo’Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire: +1, +2, -3, +4, +5, +6

Personal Prediction for Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique

Personal choice in this category: Vera Farmiga

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature
The Technical Categories

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