Oscar Handicap 2010: Leading Actor and Actress

Here, we will examine the surprising results of voting patters for Best Actor and Best Actress.

(For explanations as to how our scoring system works, make sure to read our first article in the series, Best Picture of the Year, linked at the bottom of this article.)

Best Actor

Everybody loves The Dude, but will Jeff Bridges finally get the big award that has eluded him for forty yearsr

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the nominee in the lowest grossing film in this category at the time of the nomination announcements, you’ve won 30 of the past 31 times (96.77%). Advantage: Bridges, Clooney, Freeman, Renner

2) If you’re not your film’s only chance to win, you’ve won 29 of 31 (93.55%). Advantage: Bridges, Clooney, Freeman, Renner

3) As long as you’re not the oldest nominee, you’ve won 27 of 31 times (87.10%). Advantage: Bridges, Clooney, Firth, Renner

4) The Best Actor winner has starred in a Best Picture nominee 62 of 81 times (76.54%). Advantage: Clooney, Renner

5) The SAG Award winner in this category has gone on to win the Oscar in the same category 11 of 15 times (73.33%). Advantage: Bridges

6) Nominees who have received the Golden Globe for drama have won the Oscar 21 of 31 times (67.74%). Advantage: Bridges

7) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 20 of 31 times (64.52%). Advantage: Bridges, Clooney, Firth, Renner

8) Playing an American has helped the winner in this category 20 of 31 (64.52%). Advantage: Bridges, Clooney, Renner

By The Numbers

All signs point to Bridges, and it’s about time too!

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart: +1, +2, +3, -4, +5, +6, +7, +8

George Clooney, Up in the Air: +1, +2, +3, +4, -5, -6, +7, +8

Colin Firth, A Single Man: -1, -2, +3, -4, -5, -6, -7, -8

Morgan Freeman, Invictus: +1, +2, -3, -4, -5, -6, -7, -8

Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker: +1, +2, +3, +4, -5, -6, +7, +8

Personal prediction for Best Actor: Jeff Bridges

Personal choice amongst these nominees: Jeff Bridges

Best Actress

If there is ever one Oscar category that continually screws with your head, it’s Best Actress. Every year, there is a long-presumed front runner, and then late in the game, some lady comes out of nowhere to capture the imagination of critics group to usurp the previously front-runner, only to find yet someone else win the big prize. Last year, we went from Anne Hathaway to Meryl Streep to Kate Winslet. Will Sandra Bullock be able to keep her current front-runner status to the endr

The Breakdowns

1) As long as you’re not the nominee in the lowest grossing film in this category at the time of the nomination announcement, you’ve won 29 of the last 31 times (93.55%). Advantage: Bullock, Mulligan, Sidibe, Streep

2) As long as you are not your film’s only shot at Oscar glory, you’ve won 70 of 81 times (86.42%). Advantage: Bullock, Mirren, Mulligan, Sidibe

3) The Golden Globe winner has gone to win here 25 of 31 times (80.65%). Advantage: Bullock, Streep

4) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 23 of 31 times (74.19%). Advantage: Sidibe

5) The winner in this category has played an American character 23 of 31 times (74.19%). Advantage: Bullock, Sidibe, Streep

6) The SAG Award winner in this category has gone on to win the Oscar in the same category 10 of 15 (66.67%). Advantage: Bullock

7) First-time nominees in this specific category have won 19 of 31 (61.29%). Advantage: Bullock, Mulligan, Sidibe

8) The Best Actress winner has starred in a Best Picture nominee 20 of 31 times (64.52%). Advantage: Bullock, Mulligan, Sidibe

By The Numbers

America’s sweetheart should be going home with a new man tonight.

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side: +1, +2, +3, -4, +5, +6, +7, +8

Helen Mirren, The Last Station: -1, +2, -3, -4, -5, -6, -7, -8

Carey Mulligan, An Education: +1, +2, -3, -4, -5, -6, +7, +8

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire: +1, +2, -3, +4, +5, -6, +7, +8

Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia: +1, -2, +3, -4, +5, -6, -7, -8

Personal prediction for Best Actress: Sandra Bullock

Personal choice from this category: Meryl Streep

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature
The Technical Categories

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