Oscar Handicap 2010: Director

Here, we will look at the recent voting patterns for the category of Best Director.

(For explanations as to how our scoring system works, make sure to read our first article in the series, Best Picture of the Year, linked at the bottom of this article.)

This is one of the few times true history could be created at the Oscars, with the possibilities of the first win by a female or an African-American director.

The Breakdowns

1) Best Directors have won for a film with at least one acting nomination 27 of the last 31 times (87.10%). Advantage: Bigelow, Daniels, Reitman, Tarantino

2) As long as you’re not the youngest nominee, you’ve won 25 of 31 (80.65%). Advantage: Bigelow, Cameron, Daniels, Tarantino

3) The DGA Award winner has also won the Best Directing Oscar 54 of 61 (88.52%). Advantage: Bigelow

4) Directors who have seen their movies released after September 30th have won 23 of 31 (74.19%). Advantage: Cameron, Daniels, Reitman

5) The film with the most nominations has won for Best Director 21 of 31 (67.74%). Advantage: Bigelow, Cameron

6) Directors who were not writers on their project have won 19 of 31 (61.29%). Advantage: Bigelow, Daniels

7) First-time nominees in this category have won 18 of 31 (58.06%). Advantage: Bigelow, Daniels

8) Directors who are also producers on their film have won 17 of 31 (54.84%). Advantage: Bigelow, Cameron, Daniels, Reitman

By The Numbers

Most Oscar prognosticators have tried to pit this as a battle between the formerly married couple Bigelow and Cameron, but it looks like it’s not much of a contest at all. Even Lee Daniels appears to have a better chance of winning than Cameron, based on these voting trends

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker: +1, +2, +3, -4, +5, +6, +7, +8

James Cameron, Avatar: -1, +2, -3, +4, +5, -6, -7, +8

Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire: +1, +2, -3, +4, -5, +6, +7, +8

Jason Reitman, Up in the Air: +1, -2, -3, +4, -5, -6, -7, +8

Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds: +1, +2, -3, -4, -5, -6, -7, -8

Personal prediction for Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow

Personal choice in this category: Kathryn Bigelow

All articles in this series:

Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature
The Technical Categories